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Political Party Preference Survey in May - Political party preferences

Political party preferences in May 2021

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-06-08 9.30

The Political Party Preference Survey shows the support for the different political parties in various demographic groups. Political party preference does not refer to any specific political level and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote. This survey also presents the EU and euro preferences of the electorate.

On 2 June, Statistics Sweden published estimates of election results, if an election had been held in May 2021. Here, Statistics Sweden presents estimates of political party preferences in the electorate, based on the same survey. Political party preference refers to the political party that persons prefer the most, which is not necessarily the same as the political party they would vote for in a parliamentary election.

The differences between the measurements are:

  • Political Party Preference (preferred party) does not refer to any specific political level, such as parliamentary elections, and no account is taken of whether or not a person would vote.
  • The Election today estimate refers to the results of an election held in May. The calculations of the results take into account whether or not the person would vote.

Political party preferences are compared below with election results in a hypothetical parliamentary election in May 2021.

Estimate of political party preferences and election results if there had been an “Election today” May 2021. Percent
Political party preferences in May 2021

Estimate of political party preferences and election results if there had been an “Election today”, incl. margin of uncertainty. May 2021
Party Party preference "Election today"
  Percent Margin of error Percent Margin of error
C 8.6 ±0.7 9.5 ±0.8
L 2.7 ±0.4 2.5 ±0.4
M 22.1 ±1.0 22.4 ±1.0
KD 4.4 ±0.6 4.5 ±0.5
S 29.9 ±1.2 28.2 ±1.1
V 9.1 ±0.7 8.9 ±0.7
MP 3.9 ±0.6 3.8 ±0.5
SD 17.9 ±1.0 18.9 ±0.9
Other 1.4 ±0.4 1.4 ±0.4

The table appendix of the Party Preference Survey May 2021 publication presents political party preference among various groups in the population of eligible voters. The change and distribution of political party preferences by sex, age, country of birth, and education level for each party are commented below. Estimates in parentheses refer to results in the previous survey.

Political party preferences in May 2021

Centre Party (C)

In May 2021, 8.6 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Centre Party the most. Compared with November 2020 (7.3 ± 0.7 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.

There are no differences between the sexes in support for the Centre Party in May 2021. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. Support for the Centre Party is greater among people younger than 50 years than among those aged 65 years and older. Support for the Centre Party is greater among people with a longer education than among people with a shorter education; support is more than twice as large among those with a post-secondary education compared with those with a compulsory education.

Compared with November 2020, support for the Centre Party increased among men, people aged 30-49 years, both Swedish born persons and foreign born persons, and among people with a post-secondary education or more.

Liberal Party (L)

In May 2021, 2.7 ± 0.4 percent of eligible voters report that they support the Liberal Party. This is a statistically significant decrease (3.8 ± 0.5 percent) compared with November 2020.

There are no differences between the sexes in support for the Liberal Party in May 2021. Furthermore, there are no clear differences between different age groups. Support for the Liberal Party is lower among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. In terms of level of education, the proportion of people who support the Liberal Party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a shorter education.

Compared with November 2020, support for the Liberal Party decreased among both women and men, persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons, people aged 30-49 years, and among those aged 65 years and older. In addition, support for the Liberal Party decreased among those with an post-secondary education or more.

Moderate Party (M)

In May 2021, 22.1 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer, or support, the Moderate Party the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020 (22.2 ± 1.0 percent).

There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Moderate Party. Furthermore, there are no clear differences in support between the age groups. Support for the Moderate Party is greater among persons born in Sweden than among foreign born persons. In terms of education, support is greater among those with an upper secondary education or longer compared with those with a compulsory education.

All changes compared with November 2020 lie within the margin of uncertainty.

Christian Democrats (KD)

In May 2021, 4.4 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters report that they support the Christian Democrats. This is a statistically significant decrease (5.3 ± 0.6 percent) compared with November 2020.

There are no differences between the sexes with regard to support for the Christian Democrats in May 2021. In addition, there are no clear differences between various age groups, between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons, and between various levels of education.

Compared with November 2020, support for the Christian Democrats has decreased among men, persons aged 65 years and older, and among persons born in Sweden. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.

Social Democratic Party (S)

In May 2021, 29.9 ± 1.2 percent of the electorate reported that they prefer, or support, the Social Democrats the most. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020 (29.9 ± 1.2 percent).

Support for the Social Democratic Party is greater among women than among men. Older persons to a larger extent support the Social Democrats, compared with younger people; support is roughly twice as large among those 65 years and older than among those 29 years and younger. The Social Democratic Party has more support among foreign born persons than among persons born in Sweden. In terms of education, support is greatest among those with a compulsory education.

All changes compared with November 2020 lie within the margin of uncertainty.

Left Party (V)

In May 2021, 9.1 ± 0.7 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Left Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020 (9.2 ± 0.7 percent).

Support for the Left Party is greater among women than among men. In terms of age, the proportion of people who support the Left Party is greater among younger people than among older people; support for the Left Party is more than twice as large among those aged 18-29 years than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. Support for the Left Party is greater among those with a post-secondary education than among those with a compulsory education.

All changes compared with November 2020 lie within the margin of uncertainty.

Green Party (MP)

In May 2021, 3.9 ± 0.6 percent of eligible voters state that they support the Green Party. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020 (3.9 ± 0.6 percent).

The Green Party has greater support among women than among men. In terms of age, the percentage of persons who support the Green Party is larger among those aged 49 years and younger than among those aged 50 years and older. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In terms of education, the proportion of people who support the Green Party is larger among those with an upper secondary education, than among those with a shorter education.

Compared with November 2020, support for the Green Party increased among persons aged 65 years and older, while support decreased among foreign born persons and among persons with a compulsory education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.

Sweden Democrats (SD)

In May 2021, 17.9 ± 1.0 percent of eligible voters report that they prefer the Sweden Democrats the most. Compared with November 2020 (16.8 ± 0.9 percent), this is a statistically significant increase.

The Sweden Democrats have greater support among men than among women. There is no statistically significant difference in support between persons born in Sweden and foreign born persons. In addition, there are no clear differences in terms of age. In terms of education, support for the Sweden Democrats is considerably greater among those with a compulsory education and an upper secondary education compared with those with a post-secondary education; support is more than four times are great among those with a compulsory education than among those with a post-secondary education of at least three years.

Compared with November 2020, support for the Sweden Democrats increased among those aged 30-49 years, among foreign born persons, and among those with an upper secondary education. Any other changes lie within the margin of uncertainty.

EU and euro preferences

The proportion of those who state that they are mainly in favour of Sweden’s EU membership was 56.4 ± 1.5 percent in May 2021. The percentage of persons who are opposed to EU membership was 17.1 ± 1.1 percent, and the percentage of persons who did not have an opinion was 26.0 ± 1.5 percent. This is not a statistically significant change compared to November 2020.

If a referendum on the euro had been held in May 2021, about 20.4 ± 1.3 percent would vote “yes” to the euro and about 63.2 ± 1.6 percent would vote “no”, while 16.5 ± 1.2 percent stated that they do not know how they would vote. This is not a statistically significant change compared with November 2020.

Estimate of EU and euro preferences, May 2021. Percent
Political party preferences in May 2021

The following questions were asked: "If a referendum was held today to replace the Swedish krona as a currency, would you vote “yes” or “no” with regard to introducing the euro as Sweden’s currency?" "Are you mainly in favour of or opposed to Sweden’s EU membership, or do you not have any firm opinion?"

See the Statistical Database in the link below for EU and euro preferences presented by region, foreign/Swedish background, civil status, children, income, type of housing, employment, socioeconomic group, sector and trade union affiliation.

The Party Preference Survey May 2021

Definitions and explanations

The Party Preference Survey in May 2021 was conducted with a national random sample consisting of 9 216 persons entitled to vote in a parliamentary election, without an upper age limit. Answers from these people are collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires. As in previous surveys, all available telephone numbers, both to mobile phones and fixed phones, have been used to contact the selected persons.

Among the sample persons, 29.3 percent could not be reached, 2.5 percent were unable to participate, and 17.8 percent did not wish to participate. The total non-response rate was 49.5 percent. The total number of respondents was 4 656, which corresponds to 50.5 percent. A more detailed presentation of non-response is available in table 23 of the publication “Political Party Preference Survey May 2021”.

The data was collected during the period from 28 April to 27 May.

The results are presented in the form of point estimates ± margins of uncertainty. The interval that is formed by the percent estimate ± margin of uncertainty here is a 95 percent uncertainty interval, which is an interval that, with 95 percent probability, includes the actual value of the population, if no systematic errors occur.

Next publishing will be

The November 2021 estimate of election results in parliamentary elections will be published on 2 December 2021.

Political party preferences and EU and euro preferences for November 2021 will be published on 8 December 2021.

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

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