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Trends and Forecasts 2020

Major shortage of personnel with education in health and social care

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-02-18 9.30

The 2020 Trends and Forecasts report shows that the current shortage of personnel with an education in health and social care is expected to persist or increase up to 2035. A major shortage of specialist nurses and personnel with a health and social care education at an upper secondary level is projected. A shortage is also expected in several teacher categories. In the area of technology, a shortage is mainly expected of people with an upper secondary vocational education.

Supply of people with education in health and social care expected to be insufficient

A growing population, combined with a greater proportion of older people is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the demand for labour in health and social care. At the same time, the supply of people with an upper secondary health and social care education is projected to fall, which means a shortage is to be expected.

The current shortage of nurses is expected to persist; the shortage of nurses with specialist training is expected to be particularly large. A large shortage of biomedical analysts and radiology nurses is also projected.

Shortage of doctors expected to persist long term

There is a risk of a continued shortage of educated teachers during the forecast period. While demand for teachers in all categories is projected to increase, supply is expected to remain largely unchanged given the current education capacity.

The increasing demand for teachers is due to a larger number of children and young people, and because educated teachers are projected to replace teachers working today without a teaching certificate.

Major shortage of people with upper secondary education in the technology area

In technology and manufacturing, a shortage of people with an upper secondary education is projected in the long term. In the future, the requirements of a formal education are expected to increase within several occupation categories in the upper secondary area. Since the supply of educated people is not expected to increase to the same extent as demand, this will lead to a continued or increasing shortage of people with an upper secondary vocational education, in particular within vehicle engineering and industrial technologies. The shortage of people with an industrial technologies education is explained by large numbers of retirements during the forecast period, while relatively few people choose this vocational programme in upper secondary school.

In the long term, the labour market situation for people with a Degree of Master of Science in Engineering and a Degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering is expected to be relatively well-balanced.

Major increase in people with education in journalism and fine arts

Within the educational area of social sciences, and within humanities and the arts, supply is growing sharply in many educational groups. A surplus is projected to arise in several educational groups, since demand is not expected to increase to the same extent as supply. This applies, in particular, to people with an education in journalism and the fine arts. There may also be some surplus of people educated in the humanities and the arts, social and behavioural sciences , and social sciences.

Trends and Forecasts 2020 presents calculations of supply of and demand for labour force with various fields of education up to 2035. For 66 education groups, a more detailed account is given of the current labour market and the future outlook.

The calculations are based on a number of essential conditions and assumptions relating to the development of the national economy, the labour market, and the educational system, the results should be interpreted on the basis of these assumptions.

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