Trends and forecasts for education and labour market, 2014:
Teaching degree expected to provide good job opportunities
Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2014-12-10 9.30
Those who obtain a teaching degree have a good chance of finding a job in the future. In 2035, there is expected to be a shortage of several groups of teachers, according to new forecasts by Statistics Sweden. The prospects of finding work in the health and social care sector are also good.
The demand for people with a teaching degree is expected to increase by 2035. The main explanations for this are larger cohorts of students at compulsory and upper secondary school and the fact that unqualified teachers are expected to be replaced by people with a teaching qualification. According to the forecast, there is expected to be a shortage of qualified compulsory school teachers, upper secondary teachers, recreation instructors, special needs teachers and preschool teachers.
Major challenges facing health and social care
The demand for staff in the health and social care sector is expected to be high and at the end of the forecast period, there is a risk of a shortage of a large number of skills within the area. In numerical terms, the shortage of upper secondary educated health and social care workers is expected to be greatest and amount to around 160 000. This can be explained by the expected substantial rise in demand in the elderly care sector combined with a waning interest in the education. There is otherwise a risk of a shortage of specialist nurses, midwives, dental nurses, biomedical analysts and dentists.
Shortage of upper secondary educated engineers and industrially trained persons
In the area of technology, the largest shortfall is expected to be of upper secondary educated engineers and those with an upper secondary education in industrial subjects. For both these groups, the demand is expected to fall during the forecast period. Although there is expected to be an even greater decrease in supply, which is why there is still a risk of a shortage in the long term. For those with a Bachelor's or Master's degree in engineering, the supply and demand are expected to cancel each other out relatively well in the long term.
Risk for a surplus of post secondary educated persons in the social science field
Within the social sciences, there is a risk of a surplus particularly of qualified journalists and media scientists, human resources specialists and behavioural scientists, and qualified social scientists and administration specialists. As regards those educated in economics, supply and demand are expected to develop at the same pace and a relatively balanced situation is anticipated in 2035.
Growing demand for post secondary educated labour
In all areas, the demand for post secondary educated labour is expected to rise by 2035. Despite this, there is expected to be an overall surplus of post secondary educated persons since supply will increase more than demand. This surplus will mostly apply to persons who have not gained a complete higher education qualification. The demand for upper secondary educated labour also increases during the forecast period while supply decreases. This will lead to a growing shortage of upper secondary educated persons, which applies only to those have done vocational programmes.
Definitions and explanations
Trends and Forecasts 2014 presents calculations of supply and demand of educated persons - with an outlook to the year 2035.
A detailed presentation of the current and future situations on the labour market is given for 57 educational groups.
The report also includes different sections, on, for example, higher education, the composition of the population and employment trends.
Some prerequisites for the assessments
- The calculations of the future supply of persons with various types of educational qualifications aim to show what the outcome will be if the education system remains relatively the same as it is today and if individuals choose and complete educational programmes in the same way and at the same pace as they do today. The calculations indicate that the level of education in Sweden is continuing to rise. In 2035, it is estimated that 43 percent of the population aged 16-74 will have a post secondary education. The corresponding proportion in 2012 was 36 percent.
- The calculations of the future demand for educated persons are based on four different factors, the first of which is the total employment trend. The future employment trend is based on assumptions as to how participation in gainful employment is expected to change in different groups. The second factor is the future industrial development, where the number of gainfully employed workers is distributed among 58 different industries. The third is assumptions with regard to occupational trends per industry, and the fourth is assumptions regarding future educational requirements per occupation. The number of gainfully employed persons aged 16-74 amounted to 4.5 million in 2012 and is expected to rise by 510 000 people by 2035. Foreign-born persons are expected to make up most of this increase. Employment is also expected to rise among older people. The current structural transition with more and more people working in service production and fewer in the industrial sector is expected to continue during the forecast period. Employment in public services is expected to increase dramatically as a consequence of greater staffing needs in sectors such as social care and health and medical care.
The aim of Statistics Sweden's calculations is to highlight the imbalances between supply and demand which will emerge if development continues along its current path. The calculations do not therefore take into account the effects of these imbalances on the educational choices people make, on central governmental and municipal governance of educational resources and/or on the demand of the labour market for different categories of education. The fact that there is a considerable difference between future supply and demand does not necessarily mean that a certain number of people will be unemployed or that job vacancies are not going to be filled, but it does imply that there will be a considerable demand for adaptation.
Publication
Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.