Statistics Sweden publishes a projection of Sweden’s population every year. The projection is presented by age, sex and country of birth (native/foreign born) for each year in the period 2024—2070. Population projections are an important foundation for planning in areas such as government activities. Furthermore, these statistics are used as a basis for other statistics at Statistics Sweden that describe the future in Sweden.

The population increases, but at a slower pace than previously

The population is projected to increase by 1.3 million, from 10.5 million in 2023 to 11.8 million in 2070. This is an increase of 12 percent or 0.26 percent per year. The increase is slower than in the past. Decrease of childbirths, increase of deaths, decrease of immigrations, and increase of emigrations contribute to this slow down.

The number of school children aged 6–15 years will be smaller in the future

The low fertility in recent years and the continuing low fertility estimated for the coming years indicate a decrease in the number of children in the future. The number of children aged 6–15 years will decrease in the next 15 years and then increase. It is estimated, however, that the number will not return to today’s level.

There will be years when deaths exceed births

About 94 000 people died in 2023. The number of deaths is estimated to increase in the future, because there will be more people in higher ages, where the mortality is higher. Life expectancy is expected to continue to increase. Life expectancy at birth is estimated to be 89.7 years for women and 87.4 years for men in 2070. The modal age at death in 2023 was 91 years for women and 88 years for men. It is expected to be 94 respective 93 years for women and men in 2070.

Approximately 100 000 children were born in 2023 and the number was the lowest since 2003. The number is expected to be even lower in the coming years.

This means the number of deaths is estimated to exceed the number of births, probably not this year, but in the coming years.

Increase in the number of elderly people in the population

At the end of 2023 there were around 282 000 people in Sweden who were aged 85 years or over. The number is expected to increase in the future and reach 750 000 in 2070. Nowadays, they take up three percent of the total population. In 2070 their share will increase to six percent.

Immigrants outnumber emigrants

In the future slightly less than 100 000 people will move to Sweden every year. This level is close to the average number of immigrants since 2000. More emigrations are expected in the future because of, among other reasons, the decrease in the number of asylum-related immigrations. The share of asylum seekers among the total number immigrants is estimated to be smaller in the future than previously in the 2000s.

Net immigration, i.e., the number of immigrants less the number of emigrants, is expected to fluctuate around 30,000 per year. Compared to recent years, this is a lower level, and it is slightly less than the average from 1970 to 2023.

A more detailed report of this survey is published in (only in Swedish):

The future population of Sweden 2024–2070 (pdf)
Appendix, The future population of Sweden 2024-2070 (pdf)

Regional population projections for counties and municipalities will be published on the 11th of June.