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Consumer Price Index (CPI), February 2021

Inflation rate was 1.5 percent in February 2021

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2021-03-15 9.30

The inflation rate according to the CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) was 1.5 percent in February 2021, down from 1.7 percent in January. The change on a monthly basis between January and February was 0.3 percent.

In brief

Index, monthly and yearly changes for CPI, CPIF, and CPIF-XE
CPI (1980=100) 339.01 0.3 1.4
CPIF (1987=100) 222.00 0.3 1.5
CPIF-XE (1987=100) 209.05 0.2 1.2

  • Prices increased on energy related goods and there were seasonally normal price increases on clothes.
  • Food prices decreased compared with the previous month.
  • 0.8 percent of the basket was imputed due to absence of consumption.

Higher energy prices affected the CPIF in February

The CPIF increased by 0.3 percent from January to February. In the corresponding period a year ago, the CPIF increased by 0.5 percent.

The main contribution to the CPIF monthly rate came from rising prices on clothes, due to a seasonal pattern. Prices also rose on fuel and electricity. This upturn was partly offset by falling prices on food, where prices fell in a number of subgroups.

The table below shows changes on a monthly basis and contributions to the CPIF based on the goods and services that had the greatest impact on the CPIF in February 2021. The results are presented by COICOP category; COICOP refers to the United Nations classification of household consumption expenditure.

Monthly contributions to the CPIF for goods and services
Category (Coicop) Monthly
Contribution to CPIF
Monthly change,
percentage points
Food (01.1) ‑0.4 ‑0.1
Clothes (03.1) 3.7 0.1
Electricity (04.5.1) 1.4 0.1
Fuel (07.2.2) 3.7 0.1

The monthly change in the last three years, by the goods and services that had the largest impact on the CPIF in February

The monthly change in the last three years, by the goods and services that had the largest impact on the CPIF in February

Seasonal patterns and temporary price changes

Price changes on goods and services may be seasonal or temporary. The figure above shows the monthly changes this year and in the two most recent years for the goods and services with the largest impact on the CPIF monthly change.

Food prices fell in February 2021, in contrast to the same period in the two previous years. This unusual price movement is due to decreases from high prices in January as well as some major price decreases in February. There were, for instance, particularly large price decreases on meat and fish this year.

For prices on electricity, this development was the reverse; whereas prices fell in the corresponding month in the two previous years, they rose in February this year. Fuel prices rose in February 2021 and in 2019, while they fell in 2020. For clothes, the price increase was seasonally normal for February. However, prices rose more in 2019 than in 2020 and in 2021.

Usually, prices on groups such as furnishing and household goods as well as health tend to increase in February. However, this did not happen in February 2021. Within health, a downward contribution came from price decreases mainly on medical products, appliances and equipment.

Prices on electricity continued to rise

The inflation rate according to the CPIF, that is, the change in the CPIF over the past 12-month period, was 1.5 percent in February 2021. The inflation rate fell from 1.7 percent in January.

The inflation rate was affected mainly by rising housing costs, in which electricity and rent increases were the main drivers of the upturn. In addition, prices rose on clothes and shoes, transport services, and miscellaneous goods and services. These price increases were offset mainly by falling prices on audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment.

The inflation rate according to the CPIF excluding energy was 1.2 percent in February, down from 1.8 percent in January.

Effects on a yearly basis on the goods and services that most affected the inflation rate in February
  Yearly change,
yearly change
percentage points
Clothes and shoes (03) 4.4 0.2
Housing (04) 3.7 0.9
Electricity (04.5.1) 12.2 0.4
Rented and housing co-operative dwellings: rent incl. heating (04.S) 1.3 0.1
Transport services (07.3) 6.8 0.2
Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment (09.1) ‑7.3 ‑0.2
Misc. Goods and services (12) 2.2 0.2

Other measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different inflation measures for different purposes. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable, while the CPI is the measure used for purposes of compensation.

Measures of inflation
Consumer Price Index (CPI), February 2021

Effects of the coronavirus pandemic on calculations

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, some services in the CPIF basket were unavailable to consumers to purchase in February. As in previous months, prices for these services have been imputed. The share of imputed prices was 0.83 percent in February, unchanged from January. The proportion of imputed prices is lower in 2021 than in 2020, due to a change in the CPIF basket, in which some of the previously imputed product groups have updated samples or have been assigned different weights and therefore no longer need to be imputed. For further information, see the document “Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic”.

Special imputations during the coronavirus pandemic (pdf)

Definitions and explanations

The CPIF shows the same price trend as the CPI, but without the direct effects of a changed monetary policy. The CPIF is the Riksbank’s target variable for the inflation target.

The CPIF excluding energy (CPIF-XE) and the CPIF with constant tax (CPIF-CT) are two other measures of inflation produced by Statistics Sweden on behalf of the Riksbank. In the CPIF-XE, energy products are excluded from the CPIF, while in the CPIF-CT the taxes and subsidies associated with the products in the CPIF are kept constant.

The HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is produced by all EU Member States. This measure has a somewhat smaller coverage than the CPI and the CPIF, mainly because parts of households’ housing costs are omitted.

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2021-04-14 at 9:30.

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