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The future population of Sweden 2019–2070

Women who turn 65 this year are estimated to live for 23 more years

Statistical news from Statistics Sweden 2019-04-12 9.30

A growing number of people reach higher ages. According to Statistics Sweden’s population projection, women who turn 65 this year, have, on average, 23 years left to live, while men have slightly fewer years left to live, 21 years. By 2029, Sweden’s population is estimated to reach 11 million. This is a somewhat slower growth rate than in recent years, which is mainly due to the fact that the number of persons immigrating to Sweden has declined.

This year, 108 000 persons will turn 65 years old. That will be the lowest number of people who celebrate their 65th birthday since 2007. According to Statistics Sweden’s latest population projection, there will never be fewer people turning 65 in the next 50-year period. The number of 65-year olds is estimated to remain roughly the same until the mid-2020s, and then increase once those born in the 1960s reach this age.

Reduced mortality rates and immigration rates higher than emigration rates leads to an older population and more foreign born persons. This becomes clear in a comparison between persons born 1954 who turn 65 this year and persons born in 1994, 40 years later, as well as persons born in 1914 who turned 65 years old 40 years ago.

At the age of 65 in 1979, both women and men born in 1914 had, on average, 19 years and 15 years left to live respectively. Among persons born in 1954 who turn 65 this year, the number of remaining years among women was estimated to 23 years and 21 years among men. Further increases in life expectancy after 65 years are expected. Among those both in 1994, who will turn 65 in 2059, the number of remaining years for women is estimated to 26 years, and nearly 25 years for men.

In 1979, five percent of 65-year olds were foreign born. In 2019, this proportion had increased to 18 percent and in 40 years, the proportion of 65-year olds that are foreign born is estimated to be 28 percent.

Number of births, number of 65-year olds, number and proportion of foreign born persons at 65 years, and the number of remaining years at 65 years, by year of birth
 Year of birth
 19141954 [1]1994 [1]
 WomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
Births 63 000 66 500 50 900 54 200 54 900 57 300
Number at 65 years old 48 300 44 200 53 700 54 400 69 800 70 100
of which foreign born persons 2 700 1 800 9 300 10 000 19 900 19 600
Proportion of foreign born 5.6 4.0 17.3 18.4 28.5 27.9
Number of remaining years 19.2 15.2 22.8 20.9 26.1 24.6

[1] For persons born in 1954 and 1994, the number of births observed and other information is based on the population projection.

Growing number of people live longer

The steadily increasing life expectancy, a historically stable development, is expected to continue in the future. For some time, life expectancy has increased mostly due to lower mortality rates in ages over 64 years.

The age of deceased persons has shifted towards higher ages and increasingly concentrated around the age with the highest number of deceased, at the top of the curves in the figure. For persons born in 1914, this was 87 years for women and 78 years for men. This age is estimated to increase to 92 years and 91 years for women and men born in 1954 respectively, and nearly 95 years and 94 years for women and men born in 1994 respectively

Proportion of deceased at different ages, women and men born 1914, 1954 and 1994

Proportion of deceased at different ages, women and men born 1914, 1954 and 1994

The dotted lines indicate information from the population projection.

Population growth slower than before

Sweden’s population is still increasing, but at a slower rate than in recent years. According to the projection, the population will reach 11 million in 2029, 12 million in the early 2050s, and 12.7 million at the end of the projection period in 2070.

Immigration has been greater than emigration for a long time. Recent year’s rates of immigration have been higher than ever, but after 2016, the number of people who have immigrated to Sweden has decreased. In 2018, 132 600 persons were registered as having immigrated to Sweden. The decreased immigration rate is primarily due to a lower rate of immigration among persons who sought asylum in Sweden. In the future, the rate of immigration and emigration is expected to be higher than in the past. The rate of immigration is still expected to be higher than the rate of emigration.

Definitions and explanations

Information on mortality for different years of birth is retrieved from life tables. This refers to a compilation of the probability of mortality or remaining alive at different ages.

For those born in 1914, this information is based on observed statistics up to 100 years.

For those born in 1954, the statistics refer to observed information on the share of persons remaining alive up to and including 64 years, and for ages above, the statistics are based on information in the projection until they reach 100 years, in 2054.

Information about persons born in 1994, who are 25 years old in 2019, is based on observed statistics up to 24 years, and subsequently, on the projection until 100 years, in 2094.

In the very highest ages, 101 years and older, information is rounded in the same way for all years of birth.

Publication

A more detailed report is published in Swedish with a summary in English:

The future population of Sweden 2019–2070.

Statistical Database

More information is available in the Statistical Database

Feel free to use the facts from this statistical news but remember to state Source: Statistics Sweden.

Statistical agency and producer

Statistics Sweden, Forecast Institute

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Lena Lundkvist

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Örjan Hemström

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