“Preliminary figures show an increased inflation rate according to the CPI while it decreases according to the CPIF and the CPIF-XE” says John Eliasson, statistician at Statistics Sweden.

According to preliminary statistics, the inflation rate according to the CPI increased from 0.3 percent in December to 0.4 percent in January. The monthly change for the CPI from December to January was 0.1 percent.

The preliminary inflation rate according to the CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) decreased from 2.1 percent in December to 2.0 percent in January. The monthly change for the CPIF from December to January was 0.2 percent.

For CPIF-XE (CPIF excluding energy), the preliminary inflation rate in January was 1.7 percent, which can be compared with 2.3 percent in December. The monthly change for the CPIF-XE from December to January was -0.5 percent.

The CPI flash estimates are preliminary estimates published 10 working days before the official publication. For the flash estimates, only CPI, CPIF, and CPIF-XE at the aggregated level are published. More detailed information and definitive figures will be available on February 20.

Read more about the CPI flash estimates here: Information about the CPI flash estimates (scb.se)

Different measures of inflation

Statistics Sweden calculates different measures of inflation for different purposes. In Sweden, the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most common measure of inflation, but the CPIF is the measure that the Riksbank uses as its target variable for the monetary policy. The CPIF includes the same goods and services as the CPI. The difference between the CPI and the CPIF is that in the CPIF, household mortgage interest rates are held constant. This means that the effect of changes in household mortgage interest rates is only captured in the CPI and not in the CPIF.

Basket effect 2026

Prior to the publication of the January index, the composition of the product basket used for calculating the CPI, CPIF and other related measures of consumer side inflation is updated. The consumption weights are recalculated based on new statistical data, while individual elementary product groups can be added or removed. Elementary index figures for the previous year can also be revised when updated price and weight information becomes available. The combined effect of all these adjustments on the figures is usually referred to as the “basket effect”. The table below shows the preliminary basket effect on the CPI and related index inflation figures for 2026. The basket effect on the monthly change in January occurs with the basket effect on the 12-month rate in December.

On February 20, the basket effect on HICP will be published. 

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