Births and deaths 1970–2023 and projection 2024–2070

Births by sex and country of birth 1970–2023 and projection 2024–2070

Deaths by sex and country of birth 1970–2023 and projection 2024–2070

The number of births in Sweden has varied sharply over time. This is partly due to changes in the age structure of the population: in some years there are more women in childbearing ages than in others. Fluctuations in the number of births also reflect how women and men adapt their childbearing intentions based on economic or practical preconditions. For example, during the economic downturn in the 1990s, many chose to continue to higher education and the number of births decreased.

In the most recent years, the number of births has decreased. According to the projection, this decrease will continue for another couple of years, before the number of births begins to rise.
As the number of foreign born persons increases in Sweden, the number of children born with a foreign born mother also increases. During the 1970s, more than 10 percent of the newborn children had a foreign born mother. The proportion has increased and, in 2023, almost 30 percent of the newborn had a mother born in a country other than Sweden. This is, however, a slight decrease compared to 2019 when the proportion was at it’s highest. The proportion is expected to continue to decline until the late 2040s, and after that fluctuate around 26 to 28 percent.

There are more boys than girls born each year and in the projection we expect that 106 boys per 100 girls are born. It is the same relationship between the sexes as the average for the period 1960–2023.

Until the end of the 1990s, more men died than women each year in Sweden. This pattern was reversed from the early 2000s to 2019 and the number of deceased women was larger than that of deceased men each year. Since 2020 the number of deceased men has again been higher than the number of deceased women. These changes can be explained by the fact that mortality rates have declined faster for men than for women, but also by the different sizes of cohorts. The number of deceased persons has for recent years remained at just over 90 000 cases per year, in 2023 it was 94 000. This number is expected to increase when the large cohorts born in the 1940s reaches older ages.

Previously, the proportion of foreign born persons in the older ages was small and therefore the number of deceased people who were born abroad has been relatively small. The majority of immigrants are in ages 20 to 30. As they grow older, the number of deaths of persons born abroad will also increase. Only a relatively small percentage of those who died in 1970 were foreign born individuals and in 2023 this figure was 14 percent. It is estimated that just over one-fourth of the deceased in 2070 will be foreign born persons.

In the short term, this projection can be regarded as a population forecast. In the long term, the projection should be regarded as precisely a projection of the population in the case that current behaviour and trends continue in the future. Furthermore, an assumption is made that regulations that apply today will continue to apply throughout the projection period. Already in the short term, changes in society or in the world around us may mean that projection conditions will change.